Diagnostic test for predicting metastasis and recurrence in cutaneous melanoma

ABSTRACT

The invention as disclosed herein in encompasses a method for predicting the risk of metastasis of a primary cutaneous melanoma tumor, the method encompassing measuring the gene-expression levels of at least eight genes selected from a specific gene set in a sample taken from the primary cutaneous melanoma tumor; determining a gene-expression profile signature from the gene expression levels of the at least eight genes; comparing the gene-expression profile to the gene-expression profile of a predictive training set; and providing an indication as to whether the primary cutaneous melanoma tumor is a certain class of metastasis or treatment risk when the gene expression profile indicates that expression levels of at least eight genes are altered in a predictive manner as compared to the gene expression profile of the predictive training set.

CROSS-REFERENCE TO RELATED APPLICATIONS

This application claims the benefit of U.S. Provisional Application No. 61/783,755, filed Mar. 14, 2013, the disclosure of which is explicitly incorporated by reference herein in its entirety.

BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION

Cutaneous melanoma (CM) is an aggressive form of cancer presenting over 76,000 diagnosed cases in 2012.¹ CM tumors develop through a number of discreet stages during the progression from a benign melanocytic nevus to a malignant metastatic tumor. Generally, benign nevi present as thin, pigmented lesions. After the acquisition of key genetic mutations and the initiation of cytoarchitectural modifications leading to shallow invasion of the skin, the lesions begin growing radially, a process referred to as the radial growth phase. Upon escape from growth control mediated by surrounding keratinocytes, stromal invasion to deeper regions of the dermis occurs, marking the progression to the vertical growth phase. The vertical growth phase, along with the genetic alterations that accompany this process, is thought to be the critical stepping stone in the development of metastatic melanoma.

As is common in many other cancers, if CM is detected in the early stages of tumor progression and appropriately treated, then a long-term metastasis free and overall survival following diagnosis is likely for the majority of patients.^(2,3) For example, subjects diagnosed with low risk, stage I CM tumors have a 5-year overall survival rate of 91-97%.³ A number of histological factors are used to stage CM and are associated with prognosis. These factors include Breslow thickness, mitotic index, ulceration, and spread of disease from the primary tumor to sentinel and/or regional lymph nodes.³⁻⁷ Tumor stage is determined based upon these histopathological parameters using the well-known TNM (T=primary tumor, N=regional lymph nodes, M=distant metastases) system that defines stages 0-IV.³ The TNM staging system is highly accurate for metastasis-free survival for stage 0 melanomas (5-year survival of 99%), and stage 1V melanomas (5-year survival <10%), in which distant metastasis was detected at the time of primary diagnosis. Metastasis and short-term survival has been documented for subjects with stage I disease, with 5-10% of stage I tumors reporting metastatic activity. So, while the majority of patients with clinical stage I disease have a low chance of metastasis risk disease some patients will develop metastatic disease.

Prognosis for clinical stage II and stage III cases has poor accuracy as there is a large range within each stage and a larger overlap between the stages in 5-year survival rates. Under the current staging system, the 5-year survival rate for clinical stage II subjects is 53-82%, while the stage III 5-year survival is rate 22-68%.^(3,8) The distinguishing hallmark between clinical stage II and stage III tumors is the presence of localized metastasis of CM cells in the sentinel lymph node (SLN). Patients with a positive SLN are clinical stage III. However, high false negative rates and disease recurrence are associated with histological analysis of SLNs as evidenced by the wide ranges of metastatic free survival and overall survival in stage II and III patients. Immunohistochemical and genetic amplification techniques designed to improve the common hematoxylin and eosin staining methods for detection of regional disease have been developed but only provide marginal improvements^(9,10). Biomarkers have been identified in SLN tissue, and analyzed to improve the ability to recognize CM cells in SLNs, however, these methods have limited improvement in accuracy and are compounded by extensive tissue sampling from invasive biopsy of the lymph node.^(6,11) In addition, melanomas can enter the blood directly by intravasating into venous capillaries. Thus, the low sensitivity of SLN biopsy may relate to a direct hematogenous metastatic event versus an inaccurate SLN biopsy result.

Inaccurate prognosis for metastatic risk has profound effects upon patients that are treated according to a population approach rather than an individual or personalized approach. For example, CM patients categorized as stage III through the use of current histological techniques, but who have an actual individual risk of metastasis that is low (false positive), are inappropriately exposed to over-treatment that includes enhanced surveillance, nodal surgery, and chemotherapy.'² Similarly, patients determined to have stage I or II disease who actually have a high risk for metastasis (false negative), are at risk of under-treatment. In addition, SLN biopsy exposes patients to significant clinical complications, such as lymphedema, and has a low positivity rate. For example, guidelines currently recommend that patients with CM staged at 1b (Breslow's thickness ≧0.75 mm but <1.00 mm or presence of ≧1 mitosis at any Breslow's thickness) are recommended to undergo SLN biopsy yet only 5% of SLN yield positivity. Meaning that of 20 patients with stage 1b melanomas who undergo SLN biopsy, 19 will be negative and exposed to a surgical complication of SLN biopsy.¹² Similarly, all pathologic stage II patients (Breslow's thickness >1.0 mm are recommended to undergo SLN biopsy yet only 18% will have a positive SLN.^(12,13)

To this end, gene expression profile (GEP) signatures have been developed and some have been shown to have powerful prognostic capabilities in a number of malignant diseases¹⁴⁻¹⁸. One such signature has been used for prognostication of uveal melanoma, a tumor of melanocytic origin that develops in the eye. Like cutaneous melanoma, treatment of the primary uveal tumor is highly effective. 2-4% of uveal melanoma patients present with evidence of clinical metastasis at the time of diagnosis, yet up to 50% of uveal melanoma patients develop systemic metastases within five years of diagnosis regardless of primary eye tumor treatment (radiation therapy or enucleation)¹⁹. This means that a micrometastatic event has occurred in approximately 50% of uveal melanoma patients prior to primary eye tumor treatment. A GEP signature has recently been developed that can accurately distinguish uveal melanoma tumors that have a low risk of metastasis from those that have a high risk^(14,20). To assess genetic expression RT-PCR analysis is performed for fifteen genes (twelve discriminating genes and three control genes) that are differentially expressed in tumors with known metastatic activity compared to tumors with no evidence of metastasis. The uveal melanoma gene signature separates cases into a low risk group that has greater than 95% metastasis free survival five years after diagnosis, and a high risk group with less than 20% metastasis free survival at the same time point. The signature has been extensively validated in the clinical setting, and has been shown to provide a significant improvement in prognostic accuracy compared to classification by TNM staging criteria^(20,21).

A number of groups have published genomic analysis of tumors in cutaneous melanoma²²⁻²⁹. While some studies have focused on the genetic alterations in malignant melanoma cells compared to normal melanocytes, others have compared benign nevi to tumors in the radial or vertical growth phases, or primary tumor to metastatic tumors. At the time the studies contained within this patent were designed and implemented (2010), no evidence could be found in the literature or other public domain sources that indicated a gene expression profile test focused solely on the primary melanoma tumor could be developed for the clinical application of predicting metastasis in patients with CH.^(22-24,27-29) In addition, all studies utilized fresh frozen CM samples rather than formalin fixed paraffin embedded (FFPE) tumor tissue. All of the studies related to this invention have only used FFPE primary tumor tissue.

SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION

There is a need in the art for a more objective method of predicting which tumors display aggressive metastatic activity. Development of an accurate molecular footprint, such as the gene expression profile assay encompassed by the invention disclosed herein, by which CM metastatic risk could be assessed from primary tumor tissue would be a significant advance forward for the field.

In one embodiment, the invention as disclosed herein is a method for predicting the risk of metastasis of a primary cutaneous melanoma tumor, the method comprising: (a) measuring the gene-expression levels of at least eight genes selected from the group consisting of BAP1_varA, BAP1_varB, MGP, SPP1, CXCL14, CLCA2, S100A8, BTG1, SAP130, ARG1, KRT6B, GJA, ID2, EIF1B, S100A9, CRABP2, KRT14, ROBOT, RBM23, TACSTD2, DSC1, SPRR1B, TRIM29, AQP3, TYRP1, PPL, LTA4H, and CST6, in a sample taken from the primary cutaneous melanoma tumor, wherein measuring gene-expression levels of the at least eight genes comprises measurement of a level of fluorescence by a sequence detection system following RT-PCR; (b) determining a gene-expression profile signature comprising the gene expression levels of the at least eight genes; (c) comparing the gene-expression profile to the gene-expression profile of a predictive training set; and (d) providing an indication as to whether the primary cutaneous melanoma tumor is class 1 or class 2 of metastasis when the gene expression profile indicates that expression levels of at least eight genes are altered in a predictive manner as compared to the gene expression profile of the predictive training set.

In another embodiment, the invention as disclosed herein is a method for predicting the risk of metastasis of a primary cutaneous melanoma tumor, the method comprising: (a) measuring the gene-expression levels of at least eight genes selected from the group consisting of BAP1_varA, BAP1_varB, MGP, SPP1, CXCL14, CLCA2, S100A8, BTG1, SAP130, ARG1, KRT6B, GJA, ID2, EIF1B, S100A9, CRABP2, KRT14, ROBOT, RBM23, TACSTD2, DSC1, SPRR1B, TRIM29, AQP3, TYRP1, PPL, LTA4H, and CST6, in a sample taken from the primary cutaneous melanoma tumor, wherein measuring gene-expression levels of the at least eight genes comprises measurement of a level of fluorescence by a sequence detection system following RT-PCR; (b) determining a gene-expression profile signature comprising the gene expression levels of the at least eight genes; (c) comparing the gene-expression profile to the gene-expression profile of a predictive training set; and (d) providing an indication as to whether the primary cutaneous melanoma tumor is class A, class B, or class C of metastasis when the gene expression profile indicates that expression levels of at least eight genes are altered in a predictive manner as compared to the gene expression profile of the predictive training set.

In one embodiment, the invention as disclosed herein is a method for predicting the risk of metastasis of a primary cutaneous melanoma tumor, the method comprising: (a) measuring the gene-expression levels of at least eight genes selected from the group consisting of BAP1_varA, BAP1_varB, MGP, SPP1, CXCL14, CLCA2, S100A8, BTG1, SAP130, ARG1, KRT6B, GJA, ID2, EIF1B, S100A9, CRABP2, KRT14, ROBOT, RBM23, TACSTD2, DSC1, SPRR1B, TRIM29, AQP3, TYRP1, PPL, LTA4H, and CST6, in a sample taken from the primary cutaneous melanoma tumor, wherein measuring gene-expression levels of the at least eight genes comprises measurement of a level of fluorescence by a sequence detection system following RT-PCR; (b) determining a gene-expression profile signature comprising the gene expression levels of the at least eight genes; (c) comparing the gene-expression profile to the gene-expression profile of a predictive training set; and (d) providing an indication as to whether the primary cutaneous melanoma tumor has a low risk to high of metastasis when the gene expression profile indicates that expression levels of at least eight genes are altered in a predictive manner as compared to the gene expression profile of the predictive training set.

In an additional embodiment, the invention as disclosed herein is a method of treating cutaneous melanoma in a patient, comprising the steps of: (a) obtaining the gene expression level of at least one of BAP1, MGP, SPP1, CXCL14, CLCA2, S100A8, BTG1, SAP130, ARG1, KRT6B, GJA, ID2, EIF1B, S100A9, CRABP2, KRT14, ROBOT, RBM23, TACSTD2, DSC1, SPRR1B, TRIM29, AQP3, TYRP1, PPL, LTA4H, and CST6 in a sample taken from the primary cutaneous melanoma tumor, wherein measuring gene-expression levels of the at least eight genes comprises measurement of a level of fluorescence by a sequence detection system following RT-PCR; (b) comparing the gene expression level of the at least one gene to the gene-expression level the same gene or genes taken from a predictive training set; (c) making a determination as to whether the gene-expression level of the at least one gene is altered in a predictive manner; and (d) targeting the at least one gene for therapy when the determination is made in the affirmative.

Specific embodiments of the invention will become evident from the following more detailed description of certain embodiments and the claims.

BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

FIG. 1 depicts statistical analysis and graphs illustrating Kaplan-Meier (K-M) analysis of metastasis free survival (MFS) for CM cases predicted to be at low-risk (class 1) or high-risk (class 2) of metastasis according to a radial basis machine (RBM) modeling algorithm. 5-yr MFS for the 162 sample training set (A) is 93% for class 1 cases and 31% for class 2 cases (p<0.0001), while the entire cohort has a 5-yr MFS rate of 64%. 5-yr MFS for the independent 111 sample validation set (B) is 97% for class 1 compared to 33% for class 2 (p<0.0001), with a 69% rate in the combined cohort. Accuracy of the training set model, as measured by ROC, is 0.8730, compared to 0.9130 for the validation cohort, each reflecting clinically valuable models.

FIG. 2 depicts statistical and K-M analysis of the 162 sample training set when metastasis is predicted using partition tree (A), K-nearest neighbor (B), logistic regression (C), or discriminant analysis (D) modeling algorithms. Highly significant differences in K-M MFS curves for class 1 and class 2 cohorts are observed with each modeling method. Accuracy is highest when analysis is performed with the partition tree model (ROC=0.9901; accuracy=92%; sensitivity=96%), while the other models are also statistically accurate, with ROC>0.8.

FIG. 3 depicts the same statistics and graphs as FIG. 2, but with partition tree (A), K-nearest neighbor (B), logistic regression (C), or discriminant analysis (D) used to analyze the independent 111 sample validation set. Significant differences between class 1 and class 2 K-M curves are observed using each modeling method. Algorithm accuracy is highest for the K-nearest neighbor model (ROC=0.8935), while the highest sensitivity, or accuracy of predicting class 2 high risk cases, was observed when using the partition tree model (sensitivity=94%). 4

FIG. 4 depicts statistics and K-M analysis reflecting the impact of stage 0 in situ melanomas on training set predictive power. Removing stage 0 cases from the original training and validation cohorts produces a 149 sample training set (A) and independent 107 sample validation set (C). Significant differences are observed in class 1 and class 2 K-M curves for both cohorts (p<0.0001), and metastatic risk prediction is accurate in both the training and validation sets (ROC=0.8394 and 0.9061, respectively). Analysis was also performed following inclusion of all stage 0 samples in the training set, producing a training cohort of 166 samples (B) that exhibited better accuracy (ROC=0.8846; Accuracy=83%; sensitivity=89%) compared to the 149 sample training set. No dramatic differences are observed when the independent 107 sample validation set is trained using the 166 sample cohort (D) compared to (C).

FIG. 5 depicts MFS statistics and accuracy of the genetic signature when used to predict metastatic risk in superficial spreading (A) or nodular (B) type CM tumors. K-M MFS was 100% for superficial spreading cases predicted to be class 1, and only 5% for cases predicted to be class 2 (p<0.0001). The predictive model had an accuracy of 100% for predicting both classes, and ROC=1.00. Prediction of risk for nodular tumors was less accurate, with an ROC=0.9323, accuracy of 82%, and sensitivity of 81%, but K-M analysis reflects a significant difference between the 81% 5-year MFS for Class 1 and the 7% MFS for Class 2 cases (p<0.0001).

FIG. 6 depicts MFS graphs and statistical analysis following a tri-modal prediction for CM cases at low-risk (class A), intermediate risk (class B) or high-risk (class C) of metastasis according to a radial basis machine (RBM) modeling algorithm. 5-yr MFS for the independent 107 sample validation set is 98% for class A compared to 94% for class B and 30% for class C (p<0.0001), with a 64% rate in the overall cohort, reflecting clinically valuable models.

FIG. 7 depicts MFS for the 107 sample validation cohort based upon the probability score generated for each case during predictive modeling analysis. Subgroups A-J represent 0.1 unit incremental increases in the probability of metastasis (0=low risk of metastasis, 1=high risk of metastasis), as determined by the RBM algorithm. Importantly, increases in probability score correspond to decreases in MFS rates. For example, all cases in subgroup A have a probability score between 0 and 0.099, and there is 100% 5 year MFS in the cohort. Conversely, each of the cases is subgroup J has a probability score between 0.9 and 1.0, and none of those cases is metastasis free at the 5 year time point. Statistically significant differences are observed between the subgroups (p<0.0001), and 5-year MFS is shown in the figure legend.

DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

The inventors reviewed the current state of the art for evidence of microarray analyses focused on distinguishing differential genetic expression profiles that characterize cutaneous melanoma tumors. Seven studies were identified that utilized microarray technology to determine genetic expression comparing various stages of cutaneous melanoma.^(22-27,29) The objective was to identify genes that were dysregulated between radial growth phase to vertical growth phase, or in primary melanomas compared to metastatic tumors. Mauerer, et. al., assessed gene expression differences in melanocytic nevi compared to primary melanoma, melanocytic nevi compared to metastatic melanoma, and primary melanoma compared to metastatic melanoma²⁵. Nothing in the art was found relating to evaluation of primary cutaneous melanoma tumors relative to subsequent metastatic vs. non-metastatic outcomes. In an attempt to arrive at a putative gene expression profile set, the inventors focused on genes isolated from primary melanoma tumor samples and metastatic melanoma tumor samples that had an observed up-regulation greater than 2-fold, or down-regulation greater than 3-fold, and established those as potential mediators of metastatic progression. By these criteria, 26 up-regulated genes and 78 down-regulated genes were chosen as the basis for comparison to other expression analysis studies. This 104-gene panel was subsequently compared to expression data sets reported in Scatolini et. al., Jaeger, et. al., Winnipenninckx et. al., Haqq, et. al., Smith et. al., and Bittner et. al.^(22-24,26,27,29) Additionally, the expression data from Onken, et. al., which reported 74 genes that were differentially regulated in metastatic and non-metastatic uveal melanoma tumors was compared to the 104-gene panel.¹⁴

In one embodiment, the invention as disclosed herein is a method for predicting the risk of metastasis of a primary cutaneous melanoma tumor, the method comprising: (a) measuring the gene-expression levels of at least eight genes selected from the group consisting of BAP1_var_A, BAP1_var_B, MGP, SPP1, CXCL14, CLCA2, S100A8, BTG1, SAP130, ARG1, KRT6B, GJA, ID2, EIF1B, S100A9, CRABP2, KRT14, ROBOT, RBM23, TACSTD2, DSC1, SPRR1B, TRIM29, AQP3, TYRP1, PPL, LTA4H, and CST6, in a sample taken from the primary cutaneous melanoma tumor, wherein measuring gene-expression levels of the at least eight genes comprises measurement of a level of fluorescence by a sequence detection system following RT-PCR; (b) determining a gene-expression profile signature comprising the gene expression levels of the at least eight genes; (c) comparing the gene-expression profile to the gene-expression profile of a predictive training set; and (d) providing an indication as to whether the primary cutaneous melanoma tumor is class 1 (low risk) or class 2 (high risk) of metastasis when the gene expression profile indicates that expression levels of at least eight genes are altered in a predictive manner as compared to the gene expression profile of the predictive training set.

In another embodiment, the invention as disclosed herein is a method of treating cutaneous melanoma in a patient, comprising the steps of: (a) obtaining the gene expression level of at least one of BAP1_varA, BAP1_varB, MGP, SPP1, CXCL14, CLCA2, S100A8, BTG1, SAP130, ARG1, KRT6B, GJA, ID2, EIF1B, S100A9, CRABP2, KRT14, ROBOT, RBM23, TACSTD2, DSC1, SPRR1B, TRIM29, AQP3, TYRP1, PPL, LTA4H, and CST6 in a sample taken from the primary cutaneous melanoma tumor, wherein measuring gene-expression levels of the at least eight genes comprises measurement of a level of fluorescence by a sequence detection system following RT-PCR; (b) comparing the gene expression level of the at least one gene to the gene-expression level the same gene or genes taken from a predictive training set; (c) making a determination as to whether the gene-expression level of the at least one gene is altered in a predictive manner; and (d) targeting the at least one gene for therapy when the determination is made in the affirmative.

In an additional embodiment, the invention as disclosed herein is a method for predicting the risk of metastasis of a primary cutaneous melanoma tumor, the method comprising: (a) measuring the gene-expression levels of at least eight genes selected from the group consisting of BAP1_varA, BAP1_varB, MGP, SPP1, CXCL14, CLCA2, S100A8, BTG1, SAP130, ARG1, KRT6B, GJA, ID2, EIF1B, S100A9, CRABP2, KRT14, ROBOT, RBM23, TACSTD2, DSC1, SPRR1B, TRIM29, AQP3, TYRP1, PPL, LTA4H, and CST6, in a sample taken from the primary cutaneous melanoma tumor, wherein measuring gene-expression levels of the at least eight genes comprises measurement of a level of fluorescence by a sequence detection system following RT-PCR; (b) determining a gene-expression profile signature comprising the gene expression levels of the at least eight genes; (c) comparing the gene-expression profile to the gene-expression profile of a predictive training set; and (d) providing an indication as to whether the primary cutaneous melanoma tumor is class A (low risk), class B (intermediate risk), or class C (high risk) of metastasis when the gene expression profile indicates that expression levels of at least eight genes are altered in a predictive manner as compared to the gene expression profile of the predictive training set.

In one embodiment, the invention as disclosed herein is a method for predicting the risk of metastasis of a primary cutaneous melanoma tumor, the method comprising: (a) measuring the gene-expression levels of at least eight genes selected from the group consisting of BAP1_varA, BAP1_varB, MGP, SPP1, CXCL14, CLCA2, S100A8, BTG1, SAP130, ARG1, KRT6B, GJA, ID2, EIF1B, S100A9, CRABP2, KRT14, ROBOT, RBM23, TACSTD2, DSC1, SPRR1B, TRIM29, AQP3, TYRP1, PPL, LTA4H, and CST6, in a sample taken from the primary cutaneous melanoma tumor, wherein measuring gene-expression levels of the at least eight genes comprises measurement of a level of fluorescence by a sequence detection system following RT-PCR; (b) determining a gene-expression profile signature comprising the gene expression levels of the at least eight genes; (c) comparing the gene-expression profile to the gene-expression profile of a predictive training set; and (d) providing an indication as to whether the primary cutaneous melanoma tumor has a low risk to high of metastasis when the gene expression profile indicates that expression levels of at least eight genes are altered in a predictive manner as compared to the gene expression profile of the predictive training set.

As used here in, “metastasis” is defined as the recurrence or disease progression that may occur locally (such as local recurrence and in transit disease), regionally (such as nodal micrometastasis or macrometastasis), or distally (such as brain, lung and other tissues). “Class 1 or class 2 of metastasis” as defined herein includes low-risk (class 1) or high-risk (class 2) of metastasis according to any of the statistical methods disclosed herein, Additionally, “cutaneous melanoma metastasis” as used herein includes sentinel lymph node metastasis, in transit metastasis, distant metastasis, and local recurrence.

As used herein, a “sequence detection system” is any computational method in the art that can be used to analyze the results of a PCR reaction. One example, inter alia, is the Applied Biosystems HT7900 fast Real-Time PCR system. In certain embodiments, gene expression can be analyzed using, e.g., direct DNA expression in microarray, Sanger sequencing analysis, Northern blot, the Nanostring® technology, serial analysis of gene expression (SAGE), RNA-seq, tissue microarray, or protein expression with immunohistochemistry or western blot technique.

As defined herein, “gene-expression profile signature” is any combination of genes, the measured messenger RNA transcript expression levels or direct DNA expression levels or immunohistochemistry levels of which can be used to distinguish between two biologically different corporal tissues and/or cells and/or cellular changes.

In certain embodiments, gene-expression profile signature is comprised of the gene-expression levels of at least 28, 27, 26, 25, 24, 23, 22, 21, 20, 19, 18, 17, 16, 15, 14, 13, 12, 11, 10, 9, or 8 genes. In a further embodiments, the genes selected are KRT6B, GJA1, AQP3, TRIM29, TYRP1, RBM23, MGP and EIF1B; SAP130, ARG1, KRT6B, EIF1B, S100A9, KRT14, ROBO1, RBM23, TRIM29, AQP3, TYRP1 and CST6; GJA1, PPL, ROBO1, MGP, TRIM29, AQP3, RBM23, TACSTD2, TYRP1, KRT6B, EIF1B and DSC1; CRABP2, TYRP1, PPL, EIF1B, SPRR1B, DSC1, GJA1, AQP3, MGP, RBM23, CLCA2 and TRIM29; RBM23, TACSTD2, CRABP2, PPL, GJA1, SPP1, CXCL14, EIF1B, AQP3, MGP, LTA4H and KRT6B; S100A8, TACSTD2, BAP1_varA, KRT6B, EIF1B, TRIM29, TYRP1, CST6, PPL, RBM23, AQP3, GJA1, SPRR1B and ARG1; CST6, KRT6B, LTA4H, CLCA2, CRABP2, TRIM29, CXCL14, PPL, ARG1, RBM23, GJA1, AQP3, TYRP1, SPP1, DSC1, TACSTD2, EIF1B, and BAP1_varB.

As defined herein, “predictive training set” means a cohort of CM tumors with known clinical metastatic outcome and known genetic expression profile, used to define/establish all other CM tumors, based upon the genetic expression profile of each, as a low-risk, class 1 tumor type or a high-risk, class 2 tumor type. Additionally, included in the predictive training set is the definition of “threshold points” points at which a classification of metastatic risk is determined, specific to each individual gene expression level.

As defined herein, “altered in a predictive manner” means changes in genetic expression profile that predict metastatic risk.

In one embodiment, the cutaneous melanoma tumor is taken from a formalin-fixed, paraffin embedded wide local excision sample. In another embodiment, the cutaneous melanoma tumor is taken from formalin-fixed, paraffin embedded punch biopsy sample.

In certain embodiments, analysis of genetic expression and determination of outcome is carried out using radial basis machine and/or partition tree analysis, LRA, K-nearest neighbor, or other algorithmic approach. These analysis techniques take into account the large number of samples required to generate a training set that will enable accurate prediction of outcomes as a result of cut-points established with an in-process training set or cut-points defined for non-algorithmic analysis, but that any number of linear and nonlinear approaches can produce a statistically significant and clinically significant result. Among the advantages of use of the methods disclosed herein are relating to, e.g., the in excess of 140 samples in the training set used to cover either heterogeneity or adequately handle smaller gene expression profile changes that could not adequately predict outcomes in an independent test set. As defined herein, “Kaplan-Meier survival analysis” is understood in the art to be also known as the product limit estimator, which is used to estimate the survival function from lifetime data. In medical research, it is often used to measure the fraction of patients living for a certain amount of time after treatment. “JMP Genomics® software” provides an interface for utilizing each of the predictive modeling methods disclosed herein, and should not limit the claims to methods performed only with JMP Genomics® software.

EXAMPLES

The Examples that follow are illustrative of specific embodiments of the invention, and various uses thereof. They are set forth for explanatory purposes only, and should not be construed as limiting the scope of the invention in any way.

Materials and Methods 1. Cutaneous Melanoma Tumor Sample Preparation and RNA Isolation

Formalin fixed paraffin embedded (FFPE) primary cutaneous melanoma tumor specimens arranged in 5 μm sections on microscope slides were acquired from multiple institutions under Institutional Review Board (IRB) approved protocols. All tissue was reviewed by a pathologist and sections with <60% tumor in an area compatible with dissection were excluded from the study. Tissue with >60% tumor were marked and tumor tissue was dissected from the slide using a sterile disposable scalpel, collected into a microcentrifuge tube, and deparaffinized using xylene. RNA was isolated from each specimen using the Ambion RecoverAll Total Nucleic Acid Isolation Kit (Life Technologies Corporation, Grand Island, N.Y.). RNA quantity and quality were assessed using the NanoDrop 1000 system and the Agilent Bioanalyzer 2100.

2. cDNA Generation and RT-PCR Analysis

RNA isolated from FFPE samples was converted to cDNA using the Applied Biosystems High Capacity cDNA Reverse Transcription Kit (Life Technologies Corporation, Grand Island, N.Y.). Prior to performing the RT-PCR assay each cDNA sample underwent a 14-cycle pre-amplification step. Pre-amplified cDNA samples were diluted 20-fold in TE buffer. 50 ul of each diluted sample was mixed with 50 ul of 2× TaqMan Gene Expression Master Mix, and the solution was loaded to a custom high throughput microfluidics gene card containing primers specific for 28 class discriminating genes and 3 endogenous control genes. Each sample was run in triplicate. The gene expression profile test was performed on an Applied Biosystems HT7900 machine (Life Technologies Corporation, Grand Island, N.Y.).

3. Expression Analysis and Class Assignment

Mean C_(t) values were calculated for triplicate sample sets, and ΔC_(t) values were calculated by subtracting the mean C_(t) of each discriminating gene from the geometric mean of the mean C_(t) values of all three endogenous control genes. ΔC_(t) values were standardized according to the mean of the expression of all discriminant genes with a scale equivalent to the standard deviation. Three control genes were selected based upon analysis using geNorm. Various linear and non-linear predictive modeling methods, including radial basis machine, k-nearest neighbor, partition tree, logistic regression, discriminant analysis and distance scoring, were performed using JMP Genomics SAS-based software (JMP, Cary, N.C.). Kaplan-Meier curves reflecting metastasis free survival were also generated in JMP, and statistical significance was calculated according to the Log Rank method. Cox univariate and multivariate regression analysis was performed using WinSTAT for Microsoft Excel version 2012.1.

Example 1 Cutaneous Melanoma Metastatic Risk Genetic Signature and Biomarker Expression

Genetic expression of the discriminant genes in the signature (Table 1) was assessed in a cohort of 273 cutaneous melanoma samples using RT-PCR (FIG. 1). As shown in Table 2 below, of the 28 discriminating genes, 26 were significantly altered in metastatic melanoma tumors compared to nonmetastatic tumors (p<0.05, range 0.0366-6.08E-16), and 25 were down-regulated. Genes that were up-regulated in the metastatic tumors included SPP1, KRT6B, and EIF1B.

TABLE 1 Genes included in the GEP signature able to predict metastatic risk from primary CM tumors. Gene Symbol Gene Title Gene Title Synonyms BAP1_varA BRCA1 associated protein-1 TPDS, UCHL2, HUCEP-13, hucep-6, BAP1 (a1), BAP1_var1 MGP Matrix Gla protein GIG36, MGLAP, NTI SPP1 secreted phosphoprotein 1 PSEC0156, BNSP, BSPI, ETA-1, OPN CXCL14 chemokine (C-X-C motif) ligand 14 UNQ240/PRO273, BMAC, BRAK, KEC, KS1, MIP-2g, MIP2G, NJAC, SCYB14 BAP1_varB BRCA1 associated protein-1 TPDS, UCHL2, HUCEP-13, hucep-6; BAP1 (a2), BAP1_var2 CLCA2 chloride channel accesory 2 CACC, CACC3, CLCRG2, CaCC-3 S100A8 S100 calcium binding protein A8 60B8AG, CAGA, CFAG, CGLA, CP-10, L1Ag, MA387, MIF, MRP8, NIF, P8 BTG1 B-cell translocation gene 1, anti-proliferative SAP130 Sin3A-associated protein, 130 kDa ARG1 arginase, liver KRT6B keratin 6B CK-6B, CK6B, K6B, KRTL1, PC2 GJA1 gap junction protein, alpha 1 AU042049, AW546267, Cnx43, Cx43, Cx43alpha1, Gja-1, Npm1, connexin43 ID2 inhibitor of DNA binding 2 AI255428, C78922, Idb2, bHLHb26 EIF1B eukaryotic translation initiation GC20 factor 1B S100A9 S100 calcium binding protein A9 60B8AG, CAGB, CFAG, CGLB, L1AG, LIAG, MAC387, MIF, MRP14, NIF, P14 CRABP2 cellular retinoic acid binding protein RP11-66D17.4, CRABP-II, RBP6 2 KRT14 keratin 14 CK14, EBS3, EBS4, K14, NFJ ROBO1 roundabout, axon guidance receptor, DUTT1, SAX3 homolog 1 (Drosophila) RBM23 RNA binding motif protein 23 PP239, CAPERbeta, RNPC4 TACSTD2 tumor-associated calcium signal EGP-1, EGP1, GA733-1, GA7331, GP50, transducer 2 M1S1, TROP2 DSC1 desmocollin 1 CDHF1, DG2/DG3 SPRR1B small proline-rich protein 1B CORNIFIN, GADD33, SPRR1 TRIM29 tripartite motif containing 29 ATDC AQP3 aquaporin 3 AQP-3, GIL TYRP1 tyrosinase-related protein 1 RP11-3L8.1, CAS2, CATB, GP75, OCA3, TRP, TRP1, TYRP, b-PROTEIN PPL periplakin LTA4H leukotriene A4 hydrolase CST6 cystatin E/M

TABLE 2 Genes included in the GEP signature able to predict metastatic risk from primary CM tumors. direction ΔCt value expression of nonmeta- meta- change in expres- Gene static static metastatic sion symbol samples samples samples p-value change BAP1_varA −1.290 −1.677 −0.388 0.007118 down MGP −1.996 −2.190 −0.194 0.48585 down SPP1 −1.011 2.224 3.235 6.08E−16 up CXCL14 3.021 0.828 −2.193 3.31E−12 down BAP1_varB 0.381 0.003 −0.378 0.004646 down CLCA2 −3.468 −5.603 −2.135 1.02E−08 down S100A8 −0.450 −1.179 −0.728 0.030655 down BTG1 −2.422 −3.008 −0.586 0.023606 down SAP130 −1.075 −1.405 −0.329 0.023626 down ARG1 −1.645 −4.393 −2.749 1.05E−08 down KRT6B −1.809 −1.222 0.586 0.160458 up GJA1 −2.882 −3.652 −0.770 0.034149 down ID2 −0.649 −1.411 −0.762 3.91E−06 down EIF1B 0.041 0.350 0.309 0.023747 up S100A9 3.374 2.527 −0.847 0.012385 down CRABP2 −0.087 −0.953 −0.866 0.00059 down KRT14 5.654 3.927 −1.727 1.75E−05 down ROBO1 0.100 −0.364 −0.464 0.000406 down RBM23 −2.788 −3.161 −0.374 0.018025 down TACSTD2 −3.485 −3.984 −0.499 0.03658 down DSC1 −0.102 −2.963 −2.861 7E−09 down SPRR1B 4.622 3.139 −1.482 0.001392 down TRIM29 0.228 −2.239 −2.467 2.34E−09 down AQP3 3.413 1.848 −1.565 5.08E−06 down TYRP1 1.276 −0.850 −2.125 2.41E−06 down PPL −0.082 −2.233 −2.150 5.59E−11 down LTA4H −0.736 −1.275 −0.539 0.000156 down CST6 −0.535 −3.099 −2.563 1.02E−08 down

Example 2 Initial Training Set Development Studies and Comparison to Validation Cohort

Using JMP Genomics® software and clinical data analysis, a training set of 162 cutaneous melanoma samples was generated that could accurately predict the risk of metastasis based upon the 28 gene signature. The training set contained 13 stage 0 in situ melanomas, 61 stage I, 70 stage II, 17 stage III, and 1 stage 1V melanomas. Metastatic risk was assessed using a radial basis machine predictive modeling algorithm, which reports class 1 (low risk of metastasis) or class 2 (high risk of metastasis). ΔCt values generated from RT-PCR analysis of the training set cohort were standardized to the mean for each gene, with a scale equivalent to the standard deviation. Analyses were also performed using KNN, PTA, and discriminant analysis to confirm the results from the RBM approach (as discussed below). The training set prediction algorithm was then validated using an independent cohort of 111 cutaneous melanoma samples, comprised of four stage 0 in situ melanomas, 56 stage I, 36 stage II, 12 stage III, and 2 stage 1V melanomas. Samples in the validation set were standardized prior to analysis using the factorials generated during standardization of the training set. Area under the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve, accuracy, sensitivity (prediction of high risk metastatic event), and specificity (prediction of nonmetastatic outcome) were statistical endpoints for the analysis. In the training set cohort, ROC=0.8730, accuracy=82%, sensitivity=89%, and specificity=74% (FIG. 1A). In the validation cohort, ROC=0.9130, accuracy=87%, sensitivity=94%, and specificity=79% (FIG. 1B).

Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was also performed for the training and validation cohorts. In the training set, 5-year metastasis free survival (MFS) was 93% for class 1 cases, and 31% for class 2 cases (p<0.0001; FIG. 1A). By comparison, 5-year MFS for the validation cohort was 97% for class 1 cases and 33% for class 2 cases (p<0.0001; FIG. 1B). Overall, the 5-year MFS rate for the entire training set, combining class 1 and class 2 cases, was 64%, while the combined MFS rate for the validation set was 69%.

Example 3 Analysis of 162 Sample Training Set with Multiple Predictive Modeling Methods

JMP® Genomics software allows for analysis using linear and non-linear predictive modeling methods. To assess whether accuracy of metastatic risk prediction for the validation cohort was limited to the RBM method, partition tree, K-nearest neighbor, logistic regression, and discriminant analysis were performed (FIGS. 2 and 3). Training set ROC, accuracy, sensitivity, specificity and K-M 5-year MFS for class 1 and class 2 cases were highly comparable to the RBM method. Highly accurate prediction of metastasis, and significantly different 5-year MFS between class 1 and class 2 cases was observed when using partition tree (FIG. 2A), K-nearest neighbor (FIG. 2B), logistic regression (FIG. 2C), or discriminant analysis (FIG. 2D). Significant differences in 5-year MFS were also observed for validation cohort class 1 and class 2 cases using partition tree (FIG. 3A), K-nearest neighbor (FIG. 3B), logistic regression (FIG. 3C), and discriminant analysis (FIG. 3D). Importantly, though, accuracy of prediction for validation samples was above 80% with all methods except discriminant analysis (FIG. 3D), and sensitivity, or accuracy of prediction for cases with documented metastatic events, was as high as 94% when using partition tree analysis.

Example 4 Evaluation of In Situ Melanoma Effect Upon Training Set Accuracy

To assess the impact of stage 0 in situ melanoma samples on the predictive capabilities of the training set, either a) samples were removed from all stage 0 the training and validation cohorts, generating a new training set of 149 cases; or b) all stage 0 samples were included in the training set only, generating a training set comprised of 166 cases. The new cutaneous melanoma predictive training sets were used to train a 107 sample validation cohort (the 111 sample validation set tested to this point, with four stage 0 in situs removed).

Radial basis machine prediction was performed as described above, and ROC, accuracy of prediction, and 5-year MFS were assessed for the training and validation sets (FIG. 4). Training set statistics for both the 149 sample and 166 sample training sets (FIGS. 4A and 4B) were highly comparable to the 162 sample training set. ROC was highest for the 166 sample set, but accuracy, sensitivity and specificity were identical in the 162 and 166 sample training sets. K-M analysis yielded highly significant differences between class 1 and class 2 MFS with each training set. Metastatic risk of the 107 samples in the validation cohort was accurately predicted with the 149 and 166 sample training sets (FIGS. 4C and 4D). Similar to the results seen for the validation set trained with the 162 sample cohort, both validation sets had ROC greater than 0.9, reflecting highly relevant clinical models of prediction, and sensitivity of 94%. Again, MFS was significantly different between class 1 and class 2 regardless of the training set cohort used to predict risk in the validation set.

Example 5 Identification of Reduced Discriminant Gene Signatures with Predictive Accuracy

Accurate prediction of high risk metastatic cases is extremely important in order to prevent those patients who are likely to metastasize from receiving a low risk treatment protocol. Thus, a measure of success for the predictive gene set is achievement of greater than 88% sensitivity in both the training and validation sets. As shown in Table 3 below, and in FIG. 4, sensitivity is 89% for the 166 sample training set and 94% for the 107 sample validation set when the 28-gene signature incorporating all discriminant genes is used to predict metastatic risk. Smaller sets of genes were generated that had equal or increased sensitivity compared to the 28-gene signature (Table 3, bolded). However, the majority of gene sets that did not include all 28 genes were not able to produce the sensitivity thresholds required for use in a clinically feasible GEP test.

TABLE 3 Sensitivity, or accuracy of predicting a metastatic event, achieved when using the 28-gene signature or smaller subsets of genes. Sensitivity training/ # of validation Gene set variables sets (%) all discriminant genes 28 89/94 SPP1, CXCL14, BAP1_varA, CLCA2, S100A8, BTG1 6 79/89 TACSTD2, RBM23, PPL, S100A8, MGP, TYRP1 6 86/78 SAP130, ARG1, KRT6B, GJA1, EIF1B, ID2 6 81/81 CRABP2, KRT14, ROBO1, RBM23, TACSTD2, DSC1 6 70/81 ROBO1, CST6, BAP1_varB, ID2, SPRR1B, KRT6B 6 75/83 SPRR1B, AQP3, PPL, DSC1,TYRP1, TRIM29 6 81/81 KRT6B, GJA1, AQP3, TRIM29, TYRP1, RBM23, MGP, 8 93/94 EIF1B SPP1, MGP, KRT6B, PPL, RBM23, AQP3, CXCL14, GJA1 8 86/92 BAP1_varB, S100A8, ARG1, S100A9, RBM23, DSC1, TYRP1, 8 77/94 CST6 BAP1_varA, BTG1, ARG1, GJA1, EIF1B, TACSTD2, TYRP1, 8 74/89 LTA4H GJA1, ID2, KRT14, ROBO1, RBM23, TRIM29, LTA4H, S100A9 8 70/69 DSC1, SPRR1B, TRIM29, AQP3, TYRP1, PPL, LTA4H, CST6 8 72/86 KRT14, ROBO1, RBM23, TACSTD2, DSC1, SPRR1B, TRIM29, 8 68/72 AQP3 BAP1_varA, MGP, SPP1, CXCL14, BAP1_varB, CLCA2, 8 81/83 S100A8, BTG1 SAP130, ARG1, KRT6B, GJA1, EIF1B, ID2, EIF1B, S100A9, 8 84/81 CRABP2 MGP, SAP130, GJA1, ID2, S100A9, ROBO1, AQP3, LTA4H 8 65/69 SAP130, ARG1, KRT6B, EIF1B, S100A9, KRT14, ROBO1, 12 91/97 RBM23, TRIM29, AQP3, TYRP1, CST6 GJA1, PPL, ROBO1, MGP, TRIM29, AQP3, RBM23, 12 93/94 TACSTD2, TYRP1, KRT6B, EIF1B, DSC1 CRABP2, TYRP1, PPL, EIF1B, SPRR1B, DSC1, GJA1, 12 93/89 AQP3, MGP, RBM23, CLCA2, TRIM29 RBM23, TACSTD2, CRABP2, PPL, GJA1, SPP1, CXCL14, 12 91/89 EIF1B, AQP3, MGP, LTA4H, KRT6B BAP1_varA, SPP1, BAP1_varB, S100A8, SAP130, KRT6B, ID2, 12 86/83 S100A9, ROBO1, TACSTD2 BAP1_varA, MGP, S100A8, BTG1, ARG1, S100A9, KRT14, 12 75/75 ROBO1, SPRR1B, TRIM29, AQP3, LTA4H SPP1, BAP1_varB, CLCA2, SAP130, GJA1, S100A9, RBM23, 12 84/89 SPRR1B, TYRP1, BTG1, KRT6B EIF1B, S100A9, CRABP2, KRT14, ROBO1, RBM23, TRIM29, 12 82/89 AQP3, TYRP1, PPL, LTA4H, CST6 CXCL14, BAP1_varB, CLCA2, S100A8, BTG1, SAP130, 12 79/92 S100A9, CRABP2, KRT14, ROBO1, RMB23, TACSTD2 MGP, CLCA2, S100A8, ARG1, GJA1, ID2, S100A9, ROBO1, 12 70/78 RBM23, SPRR1B, TRIM29, AQP3 S100A8, TACSTD2, BAP1_varA, KRT6B, EIF1B, TRIM29, 14 91/89 TYRP1, CST6, PPL, RBM23, AQP3, GJA1, SPRR1B, ARG1 BAP1_varB, CLCA2, BTG1, SAP130, GJA1, ID2, S100A9, 14 86/89 CRABP2, RBM23, TACSTD2, DSC1, LTA4H, SPP1, KRT6B SPP1, CLCA2, S100A8, SAP130, ARG1, ID2, EIF1B, S100A9, 14 86/97 KRT14, ROBO1, DSC1, TRIM29, TYRP1, LTA4H CXCL14, BAP1_varB, S100A8, BTG1, ARG1, KRT6B, ID2, 14 89/82 EIF1B, CRABP2, KRT14, RBM23, TACSTD2, SPRR1B, TRIM29 BAP1_varA, MGP, SPP1, CXCL14, BAP1_varB, CLCA2, 14 84/86 S100A8, BTG1, SAP130, ARG1, KRT6B, GJA1, ID1, EIF1B S100A9, CRABP2, KRT14, ROBO1, RBM23, TACSTD2, DSC1, 14 82/78 SPRR1B, TRIM29, AQP3, TYRP1, PPL, LTA4H, CST6 BTG1, SAP130, ARG1, GJA1, EIF1B, CRABP2, ROBO1, 14 84/86 RBM23, TACSTD2, DSC1, SPRR1B, AQP3, PPL, CST6 BAP1_varA, MGP, BAP1_varB, CLCA2, BTG1, SAP130, GJA1, 14 72/72 ID2, S100A9, CRABP2, RBM23, TACSTD2, DSC1, LTA4H MGP, CXCL14, S100A8, BTG1, ARG1, GJA1, ID2, S100A9, 14 82/86 KRT14, ROBO1, TACSTD2, SPRR1B, TRIM29, TYRP1 S100A8, BTG1, SAP130, EIF1B, S100A9, CRABP2, KRT14, 14 79/86 DSC1, SPRR1B, TRIM29, AQP3, CST6, BAP1_varB, LTA4H CST6, KRT6B, LTA4H, CLCA2, CRABP2, TRIM29, 18 91/89 CXCL14, PPL, ARG1, RBM23, GJA1, AQP3, TYRP1, SPP1, DSC1, TACSTD2, EIF1B, BAP1_varA MGP, CXCL14, CLCA2, BTG1, ARG1, GJA1, EIF1B, CRABP2, 18 81/92 ROBO1, TACSTD2, DSC1, SPRR1B, TRIM29, AQP3, TYRP1, PPL, LTA4H, CST6 MGP, BAP1_varB, CLCA2, S100A8, BTG1, KRT6B, GJA1, ID2, 18  81/100 EIF1B, S100A9, ROBO1, RBM23, TACSTD2, AQP3, TYRP1, PPL, LTA4H, SPRR1B

Example 6 28-Gene Signature for Cutaneous Melanoma Predicts Aggressive Tumor Progression to SLN, Distant Lymph Nodes, in Transit Metastasis, Distant Metastasis, and Local Recurrence

A total of 29 stage III, sentinel lymph node (SNL) positive, samples were included in the study population (17 in the training set and 12 in the validation set). These results are shown below in Table 4. RBM prediction of risk for the stage III samples resulted in 25 of 29 (86%) cases classified as high risk, class 2. Metastasis beyond the SLN was documented for 23 of the 29 cases, and 21 of those were predicted to be class 2 by the algorithm. Metastatic events localized to distant lymph nodes were documents for 13 cases, 12 (92%) of which were accurately predicted to be class 2. Similarly, 6 of 7 (86%) of in transit metastasis cases were assigned to class 2, indicating that the 28-gene predictive signature accurately predicts all aggressive cutaneous melanoma tumor types, including SLN positive, distant nodal, in transit, distant visceral metastases and local recurrence.

TABLE 4 Accuracy of the CM 28-gene signature for predicting metastatic risk in SLN, distant lymph nodes, in transit metastasis, and locally recurrent disease. training set validation set called called total class 2 total class 2 SLN+ (stage III) 17 14 (82%) 12 11 (92%) samples documented 12 11 (92%) 11 10 (91%) met event no documented  5  3 (60%)  1  1 (100%) met event distant lymph node  6 (2 SLN+)  6 (100%)  7 (5 SLN+)  6 (86%) metastasis in transit metastasis  3  2 (66%)  4  4 (100%) local recurrence  9  4* (44%)  5**  3 (60%) *2/4 LR have known metastatic event (both called class 2) **1/5 LR is stage III (SLN+) - called class 2

Example 7 Statistical Comparison of GEP Signature to Common CM Prognostic Factors

Cox univariate and multivariate regression analysis was performed for the 107 sample validation cohort following prediction of metastatic risk (Tables 5 and 6). GEP was compared to the individual prognostic factors comprising AJCC pathologic stage, including Breslow thickness, mitotic rate, and ulceration status, and was also compared directly to AJCC stage. AJCC stage was analyzed as known in the art as Stage IA, IB, IIA vs. IIB, IIC, III, IV for the complete validation set, and as Stage IA, IB, IIA vs. IIB, IIC for analysis that included only Stage I and II. Thus, analysis was performed with inclusion of all validation set cases (Table 5), or with inclusion of only stage I and stage II cases (Table 6). Cox univariate analysis resulted in significant correlation with metastasis for all factors except mitotic rate regardless of whether all validation set cases were included, or whether inclusion was restricted to stage I and II cases only. Comparison of GEP to Breslow thickness, ulceration, and mitotic rate showed that GEP and ulceration were significantly correlated to metastatic risk in a multivariate analysis (HR=8.4 and 2.6, p=0.04 and 0.03, respectively). Direct comparison to AJCC stage by multivariate analysis indicates that both factors are significantly correlated to metastasis (GEP HR=10.3, p<0.004; AJCC HR=6.4, p<0.0002). These results indicate that the 28-gene signature is able to predict metastasis independently of AJCC TNM staging and other prognostic factors.

TABLE 5 Univariate and multivariate analysis of cutaneous melanoma prognostic factors with inclusion of cases from all AJCC stages. Univariate Multivariate Variable P-value HR CI P-value HR CI Breslow (0.75 mm) 0 002 24 2.0 0.09 16 3.2 Ulceration <10−7 11.6 0.8 0.03 2.6 0.9 Mitotic 0.06  4.0 1.4 0.13 3.1 1.4 GEP test <10−6 32 1.4 0.04 8.4 2.0 AJCC <10−7 20 0.9 0.0002 6.4 1.0 GEP test <10−6 32 1.4 0.004 10.3 1.6

An important clinical application of the GEP test is to identify patients who are staged as low risk (clinical stage I and II) for metastasis but who are at actual high risk for metastasis based upon the genomic signature of their CM. The Cox univariate and multivariate regression analysis was performed for those patients in the 107 sample validation cohort following prediction of metastatic risk (Table 6) who had clinical stage I and II CM only. Again, GEP was compared to the elements comprising AJCC pathologic stage: Breslow thickness, mitotic rate, and ulceration status, and directly to AJCC stage. Under univariate analysis, Breslow's thickness, ulceration status and GEP Class 2 were significant (p<0.0005). However, under multivariate analysis, only GEP Class 2 was significant (Hazard ratio=27; p=0.01). Univariate analyses for comparison of AJCC stage to GEP Class 2 showed both to be statistically significant, but the GEP Class 2 variable had a greater Hazard ratio than AJCC stage (48 vs 15, respectively). Multivariate analyses demonstrated that both factors were independent of each other (p<0.006) but the Hazard Ratio for the GEP Class 2 was again greater than that of AJCC stage (23 vs. 4.0). Together, these two result tables (Table 5 and 6) indicate that the 28-gene signature predicts metastasis independently of AJCC TNM staging and other prognostic factors in patients of all stage (I, II, III and IV).

TABLE 6 Univariate and multivariate analysis of cutaneous melanoma prognostic factors with inclusion of cases from AJCC stages I and II. Univariate Multivariate Variable P-value HR CI P-value HR CI Breslow (0.75 mm) 0.0005 151 2.8 0.97 1.1 4.2 Ulceration <10−6 11 1.0 0.22 1.9 1.0 Mitotic 0.2 2.6 1.5 0.32 2.1 1.4 GEP test 0.0002 48 2.0 0.01 27 2.5 AJCC <10−7 15 1.0 0.006 4.0 1.0 GEP test 0.0002 48 2.0 0.004 23 2.1

Example 8 28-Gene Signature for Cutaneous Melanoma Predicts Metastasis in Superficial Spreading and Nodular Growth Patterns

Of the four growth patterns described for CM tumors, superficial spreading is the most prevalent, and biologically distinct from nodular melanomas.¹³ Radial basis machine analysis of the superficial spreading tumors within the cohort (n=128) resulted in a highly accurate classification of metastatic and non-metastatic tumors (FIG. 5A). K-M MFS analysis shows that cases predicted to be class 1 have a 100% 5-year metastasis free rate, while high risk class 2 cases have only a 5% MFS rate. Additionally, an ROC=1.00 reflects 100% accuracy of the prediction for superficial spreading tumors. The genetic signature is also able to predict metastatic potential for nodular type CM tumors (FIG. 5B). K-M MFS rate is 81% for class 1 cases, compared to 7% for class 2 cases (p<0.0001). Accuracy of the predicted model was high, as evidenced by ROC=0.9323, accuracy of 82%, and sensitivity of 81%. These results indicate that the genetic signature has high accuracy for predicting superficial spreading disease and lower accuracy for predicting nodular disease. While the invention has been described in terms of various embodiments, it is understood that variations and modifications will occur to those skilled in the art. Therefore, it is intended that the appended claims cover all such equivalent variations that come within the scope of the invention as claimed. In addition, the section headings used herein are for organizational purposes only and are not to be construed as limiting the subject matter described.

Each embodiment herein described may be combined with any other embodiment or embodiments unless clearly indicated to the contrary. In particular, any feature or embodiment indicated as being preferred or advantageous may be combined with any other feature or features or embodiment or embodiments indicated as being preferred or advantageous, unless clearly indicated to the contrary.

Example 9 Trimodal and Linear Methods for Predicting Metastatic Risk According to GEP

While a bimodal (low risk Class 1 vs high risk Class 2) may be the preferred clinical reporting output, additional analysis suggest that the tri-modal or linear approach may be clinically appropriate. Analysis using a trimodal approach demonstrated a stratification outcome related to metastatic risk. Specifically, development of a Class A (low risk), Class B (medium risk) and Class C (high risk) trimodal output shows a graduated increase in metastatic risk (FIG. 6). Analysis shows 5-yr MFS for the independent 107 sample validation set is 98% for class A compared to 94% for class B and 30% for class C (p<0.0001), with a 64% rate in the overall cohort, reflecting clinically valuable models.

Probability of the metastatic risk prediction is based upon the coefficients of the 28 variables (genes) and reported as a value between 0 and 1. For the two-class analysis, cases with a probability score between 0 and 0.5 are designated low risk, class 1 cases. Conversely, cases with a probability score between 0.5 and 1.0 are classified as class 2, high risk. The linear output of the probability score can also be used directly to assess the risk associated with the genetic signature of particular CM tumor. As shown in FIG. 7, 5 year MFS of cases in the 107 sample validation cohort is strongly correlated with the probability of metastasis. Assessment of all cases with a probability of metastasis lower than 0.399 shows that none of those cases has had a documented metastatic event to date, and 5 year MFS is 100%. Two of the 17 cases that fall between the probability scores of 0.4 and 0.499 have evidence of a metastatic event, and 5 year MFS for this group is 87%. Those cases with probability scores between 0.5 and 1.0 have a significant reduction in 5 year MFS. As illustrated by curves F-J in FIG. 5, 0.1 increment increases in the probability score lead to corresponding reductions in 5 year MFS from 56% to 46%, 22%, 16%, and 0%. Thus, the utility of the 28 gene predictive signature lies in both the class assignment of metastatic risk and the linear correlation of probability with metastatic outcome.

All references cited in this application are expressly incorporated by reference herein.

REFERENCES

-   1. Siegel R, Naishadham D, Jemal A. Cancer statistics, 2012. CA     Cancer J Clin 2012;62:10-29. -   2. Balch C M, Soong S J, Gershenwald J E, et al. Prognostic factors     analysis of 17,600 melanoma patients: validation of the American     Joint Committee on Cancer melanoma staging system. J Clin Oncol     2001;19:3622-34. -   3. Balch C M, Gershenwald J E, Soong S J, et al. Final version of     2009 AJCC melanoma staging and classification. J Clin Oncol     2009;27:6199-206. -   4. Balch C M, Buzaid A C, Soong S J, et al. Final version of the     American Joint Committee on Cancer staging system for cutaneous     melanoma. J Clin Oncol 2001;19:3635-48. -   5. Edge S B, Compton C C. The American Joint Committee on Cancer:     the 7th edition of the AJCC cancer staging manual and the future of     TNM. Ann Surg Oncol 2010;17:1471-4. -   6. Takeuchi H, Morton D L, Kuo C, et al. Prognostic significance of     molecular upstaging of paraffin-embedded sentinel lymph nodes in     melanoma patients. J Clin Oncol 2004;22:2671-80. -   7. Zettersten E, Shaikh L, Ramirez R, Kashani-Sabet M. Prognostic     factors in primary cutaneous melanoma. Surg Clin North Am     2003;83:61-75. -   8. Balch C M, Gershenwald J E, Soong S J, et al. Multivariate     analysis of prognostic factors among 2,313 patients with stage III     melanoma: comparison of nodal micrometastases versus     macrometastases. J Clin Oncol 2010;28:2452-9. -   9. Yee V S, Thompson J F, McKinnon J G, et al. Outcome in 846     cutaneous melanoma patients from a single center after a negative     sentinel node biopsy. Ann Surg Oncol 2005;12:429-39. -   10. Karim R Z, Scolyer R A, Li W, et al. False negative sentinel     lymph node biopsies in melanoma may result from deficiencies in     nuclear medicine, surgery, or pathology Ann Surg 2008;247:1003-10. -   11. Nicholl M B, Elashoff D, Takeuchi H, Morton D L, Hoon D S.     Molecular upstaging based on paraffin-embedded sentinel lymph nodes:     ten-year follow-up confirms prognostic utility in melanoma patients.     Ann Surg 2011;253:116-22. -   12. Coit D G. Melanoma Version 2.2013: National Comprehensive Cancer     Network; 2013 2/2013. -   13. Morton D L. Overview and update of the phase III Multicenter     Selective Lymphadenectomy Trials (MSLT-I and MSLT-II) in melanoma.     Clin Exp Metastasis 2012;29:699-706. -   14. Onken M D, Worley L A, Ehlers J P, Harbour J W. Gene expression     profiling in uveal melanoma reveals two molecular classes and     predicts metastatic death. Cancer Res 2004;64:7205-9. -   15. Francis P, Namlos H M, Muller C, et al. Diagnostic and     prognostic gene expression signatures in 177 soft tissue sarcomas:     hypoxia-induced transcription profile signifies metastatic     potential. BMC Genomics 2007;8:73. -   16. Paik S, Shak S, Tang G, et al. A multigene assay to predict     recurrence of tamoxifen-treated, node-negative breast cancer. N Engl     J Med 2004;351:2817-26. -   17. Colman H, Zhang L, Sulman E P, et al. A multigene predictor of     outcome in glioblastoma. Neuro Oncol 2010;12:49-57. -   18. Gordon G J, Jensen R V, Hsiao L L, et al. Using gene expression     ratios to predict outcome among patients with mesothelioma. J Natl     Cancer Inst 2003;95:598-605. -   19. Sato T. Locoregional management of hepatic metastasis from     primary uveal melanoma. Semin Oncol 2010;37:127-38. -   20. Onken M D, Worley L A, Tuscan M D, Harbour J W. An accurate,     clinically feasible multi-gene expression assay for predicting     metastasis in uveal melanoma. J Mol Diagn 2010;12:461-8. -   21. Onken M D, Worley L A, Char D H, et al. Collaborative Ocular     Oncology Group Report Number 1: Prospective Validation of a     Multi-Gene Prognostic Assay in Uveal Melanoma. Ophthalmology 2012. -   22. Jaeger J, Koczan D, Thiesen H J, et al. Gene expression     signatures for tumor progression, tumor subtype, and tumor thickness     in laser-microdissected melanoma tissues. Clin Cancer Res     2007;13:806-15. -   23. Bittner M, Meltzer P, Chen Y, et al. Molecular classification of     cutaneous malignant melanoma by gene expression profiling. Nature     2000;406:536-40. -   24. Haqq C, Nosrati M, Sudilovsky D, et al. The gene expression     signatures of melanoma progression. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA     2005;102:6092-7. -   25. Mauerer A, Roesch A, Hafner C, et al. Identification of new     genes associated with melanoma. Exp Dermatol 2011;20:502-7. -   26. Scatolini M, Grand M M, Grosso E, et al. Altered molecular     pathways in melanocytic lesions. Int J Cancer 2010;126:1869-81. -   27. Smith A P, Hoek K, Becker D. Whole-genome expression profiling     of the melanoma progression pathway reveals marked molecular     differences between nevi/melanoma in situ and advanced-stage     melanomas. Cancer Biol Ther 2005;4:1018-29. -   28. Weeraratna A T, Becker D, Carr K M, et al. Generation and     analysis of melanoma SAGE libraries: SAGE advice on the melanoma     transcriptome. Oncogene 2004;23:2264-74. -   29. Winnepenninckx V, Lazar V, Michiels S, et al. Gene expression     profiling of primary cutaneous melanoma and clinical outcome. J Natl     Cancer Inst 2006;98:472-82. 

1. A method for predicting the risk of metastasis of a primary cutaneous melanoma tumor in a patient, the method comprising: (a) obtaining a primary cutaneous melanoma tumor sample from the patient; (b) determining expression levels of genes in a gene set, wherein the expression levels of the genes in the gene set are determined by measuring a level of fluorescence by a sequence detection system following RT-PCR, and wherein the gene set comprises the genes: (1) BAP1_var1, BAP1_var2, MGP, SPP1, CXCL14, CLCA2, S100A8, BTG1, SAP130, ARG1, KRT6B, GJA, ID2, EIF1B, S100A9, CRABP2, KRT14, ROBO1, RBM23, TACSTD2, DSC1, SPRR1B, TRIM29, AQP3, TYRP1, PPL, LTA4H, and CST6; (2) KRT6B, GJA1, AQP3, TRIM29, TYRP1, RBM23, MGP and EIF1B; (3) SAP130, ARG1, KRT6B, EIF1B, S100A9, KRT14, ROBOT, RBM23, TRIM29, AQP3, TYRP1 and CST6; (4) GJA1, PPL, ROBOT, MGP, TRIM29, AQP3, RBM23, TACSTD2, TYRP1, KRT6B, EIF1B and DSC1; (5) CRABP2, TYRP1, PPL, EIF1B, SPRR1B, DSC1, GJA1, AQP3, MGP, RBM23, CLCA2 and TRIM29; (6) RBM23, TACSTD2, CRABP2, PPL, GJA1, SPP1, CXCL14, EIF1B, AQP3, MGP, LTA4H and KRT6B; (7) S100A8, TACSTD2, BAP1_var1, KRT6B, EIF1B, TRIM29, TYRP1, CST6, PPL, RBM23, AQP3, GJA1, SPRR1B and ARG1; or (8) CST6, KRT6B, LTA4H, CLCA2, CRABP2, TRIM29, CXCL14, PPL, ARG1, RBM23, GJA1, AQP3, TYRP1, SPP1, DSC1, TACSTD2, EIF1B, and BAP1_var1; (c) determining a gene-expression profile comprising the expression levels of the genes in the gene set; (d) comparing the gene-expression profile for the gene set to the gene-expression profile of a predictive training set; and (e) providing an indication as to whether the primary cutaneous melanoma tumor is class 1 or class 2 of metastasis when the gene-expression profile for the gene set indicates that expression levels of the genes in the gene set are altered in a predictive manner as compared to the gene-expression profile of the predictive training set.
 2. The method of claim 1, wherein the cutaneous melanoma tumor sample is obtained from a formalin-fixed, paraffin embedded wide local excision sample.
 3. The method of claim 1, wherein the cutaneous melanoma tumor sample is obtained from formalin-fixed, paraffin embedded punch biopsy sample.
 4. A method for predicting the risk of metastasis of a primary cutaneous melanoma tumor in a patient, the method comprising: (a) obtaining a primary cutaneous melanoma tumor sample from the patient; (b) determining expression levels of genes in a gene set, wherein the expression levels of the genes in the gene set are determined by measuring a level of fluorescence by a sequence detection system following RT-PCR, and wherein the gene set comprises the genes: (1) BAP1_var1, BAP1_var2, MGP, SPP1, CXCL14, CLCA2, S100A8, BTG1, SAP130, ARG1, KRT6B, GJA, ID2, EIF1B, S100A9, CRABP2, KRT14, ROBO1, RBM23, TACSTD2, DSC1, SPRR1B, TRIM29, AQP3, TYRP1, PPL, LTA4H, and CST6; (2) KRT6B, GJA1, AQP3, TRIM29, TYRP1, RBM23, MGP and EIF1B; (3) SAP130, ARG1, KRT6B, EIF1B, S100A9, KRT14, ROBOT, RBM23, TRIM29, AQP3, TYRP1 and CST6; (4) GJA1, PPL, ROBOT, MGP, TRIM29, AQP3, RBM23, TACSTD2, TYRP1, KRT6B, EIF1B and DSC1; (5) CRABP2, TYRP1, PPL, EIF1B, SPRR1B, DSC1, GJA1, AQP3, MGP, RBM23, CLCA2 and TRIM29; (6) RBM23, TACSTD2, CRABP2, PPL, GJA1, SPP1, CXCL14, EIF1B, AQP3, MGP, LTA4H and KRT6B; (7) S100A8, TACSTD2, BAP1_var1, KRT6B, EIF1B, TRIM29, TYRP1, CST6, PPL, RBM23, AQP3, GJA1, SPRR1B and ARG1; or (8) CST6, KRT6B, LTA4H, CLCA2, CRABP2, TRIM29, CXCL14, PPL, ARG1, RBM23, GJA1, AQP3, TYRP1, SPP1, DSC1, TACSTD2, EIF1B, and BAP1_var1; (c) determining a gene-expression profile comprising the expression levels of the genes in the gene set; (d) comparing the gene-expression profile for the gene set to the gene-expression profile of a predictive training set; and (e) providing an indication as to whether the primary cutaneous melanoma tumor is class A, class B, or class C of metastasis when the gene expression profile for the gene set indicates that expression levels of the genes in the gene set are altered in a predictive manner as compared to the gene-expression profile of the predictive training set.
 5. The method of claim 4, wherein the cutaneous melanoma tumor sample is obtained from a formalin-fixed, paraffin embedded wide local excision sample.
 6. The method of claim 4, wherein the cutaneous melanoma tumor sample is obtained from formalin-fixed, paraffin embedded punch biopsy sample.
 7. A method for predicting the risk of metastasis of a primary cutaneous melanoma tumor in a patient, the method comprising: (a) obtaining a primary cutaneous melanoma tumor sample from the patient; (b) determining the expression levels of genes in a gene set, wherein the expression levels of the genes in the gene set are determined by measuring a level of fluorescence by a sequence detection system following RT-PCR, and wherein the gene set comprises the genes: (1) BAP1_var1, BAP1_var2, MGP, SPP1, CXCL14, CLCA2, S100A8, BTG1, SAP130, ARG1, KRT6B, GJA, ID2, EIF1B, S100A9, CRABP2, KRT14, ROBO1, RBM23, TACSTD2, DSC1, SPRR1B, TRIM29, AQP3, TYRP1, PPL, LTA4H, and CST6; (2) KRT6B, GJA1, AQP3, TRIM29, TYRP1, RBM23, MGP and EIF1B; (3) SAP130, ARG1, KRT6B, EIF1B, S100A9, KRT14, ROBO1, RBM23, TRIM29, AQP3, TYRP1 and CST6; (4) GJA1, PPL, ROBO1, MGP, TRIM29, AQP3, RBM23, TACSTD2, TYRP1, KRT6B, EIF1B and DSC1; (5) CRABP2, TYRP1, PPL, EIF1B, SPRR1B, DSC1, GJA1, AQP3, MGP, RBM23, CLCA2 and TRIM29; (6) RBM23, TACSTD2, CRABP2, PPL, GJA1, SPP1, CXCL14, EIF1B, AQP3, MGP, LTA4H and KRT6B; (7) S100A8, TACSTD2, BAP1_var1, KRT6B, EIF1B, TRIM29, TYRP1, CST6, PPL, RBM23, AQP3, GJA1, SPRR1B and ARG1; or (8) CST6, KRT6B, LTA4H, CLCA2, CRABP2, TRIM29, CXCL14, PPL, ARG1, RBM23, GJA1, AQP3, TYRP1, SPP1, DSC1, TACSTD2, EIF1B, and BAP1_var1; (c) determining a gene-expression profile comprising the expression levels of the genes in the gene set; (d) comparing the gene-expression profile for the gene set to the gene-expression profile of a predictive training set; and (e) providing an indication as to whether the primary cutaneous melanoma tumor has a low risk to high of metastasis when the gene-expression profile for the gene set indicates that expression levels of the genes in the gene set are altered in a predictive manner as compared to the gene expression profile of the predictive training set.
 8. The method of claim 7, wherein the cutaneous melanoma tumor sample is obtained from a formalin-fixed, paraffin embedded wide local excision sample.
 9. The method of claim 7, wherein the cutaneous melanoma tumor sample is obtained from formalin-fixed, paraffin embedded punch biopsy sample. 